Preseason Rankings
Patriot League
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
171 Bucknell 23.4%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 7 -0.3      -0.7 186 +0.4 151 76.9 29 0.0 1 0.0 1
185 Lehigh 18.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 7 -1.1      +0.7 140 -1.8 239 74.7 55 0.0 1 0.0 1
206 Holy Cross 11.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 10 - 8 -2.7      -2.1 233 -0.6 187 59.2 349 0.0 1 0.0 1
209 Colgate 10.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 8 -2.9      -0.9 196 -2.0 245 65.7 266 0.0 1 0.0 1
216 Army 10.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 9 -3.2      -1.9 222 -1.4 223 74.1 59 0.0 1 0.0 1
223 Boston University 8.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 9 - 9 -3.7      -2.4 241 -1.4 222 68.3 199 0.0 1 0.0 1
242 American 7.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -4.5      -2.3 237 -2.2 254 65.8 262 0.0 1 0.0 1
260 Navy 4.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -5.7      -5.3 312 -0.4 177 64.0 309 0.0 1 0.0 1
293 Lafayette 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -7.3      -2.5 245 -4.8 323 69.3 176 0.0 1 0.0 1
300 Loyola Maryland 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 20 7 - 11 -7.8      -5.0 306 -2.8 274 69.3 174 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Bucknell 3.5 27.6 18.0 13.9 10.8 8.8 6.9 5.7 3.8 3.0 1.6
Lehigh 3.9 22.3 16.6 13.9 11.6 9.8 7.8 6.8 5.0 3.8 2.4
Holy Cross 4.6 14.6 13.6 13.3 11.7 10.4 9.4 9.3 7.7 5.9 4.1
Colgate 4.7 13.8 13.7 11.7 11.2 10.8 10.3 9.0 7.3 7.2 5.0
Army 4.8 12.7 12.7 12.7 11.4 10.6 10.7 9.1 8.0 7.1 5.0
Boston University 5.1 10.7 11.6 11.2 11.5 11.5 10.2 10.0 9.5 8.2 5.7
American 5.5 9.5 9.8 9.6 10.4 10.5 10.6 11.1 10.2 10.0 8.2
Navy 6.0 5.8 7.5 8.5 9.8 10.4 10.8 11.4 12.4 12.6 10.8
Lafayette 6.8 3.6 4.5 6.1 7.6 8.8 10.1 12.1 13.5 16.1 17.5
Loyola Maryland 7.0 2.7 4.1 5.0 6.9 8.1 10.3 12.3 13.3 16.9 20.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Bucknell 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 3.1 5.0 7.0 8.7 10.3 12.0 11.5 10.9 10.6 7.8 5.0 2.5 0.9
Lehigh 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.7 4.4 6.4 7.7 9.7 10.8 11.6 11.4 10.2 8.6 6.7 3.9 1.8 0.7
Holy Cross 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.6 4.7 6.8 8.4 9.5 10.4 11.2 10.9 10.0 8.6 6.4 3.7 2.3 0.9 0.3
Colgate 10 - 8 0.0 0.5 1.1 2.3 3.5 4.7 7.2 8.3 9.6 11.1 10.7 10.7 9.7 7.5 6.1 3.8 1.9 1.0 0.2
Army 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 3.7 5.2 7.5 8.6 10.1 10.6 11.5 10.8 9.3 7.3 5.6 3.4 2.1 0.6 0.1
Boston University 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.3 4.2 6.3 8.3 9.4 10.7 11.3 10.6 9.9 8.6 6.9 4.4 2.7 1.8 0.5 0.1
American 9 - 9 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.8 5.6 7.2 8.8 10.5 10.2 11.1 9.9 8.8 7.2 5.9 3.8 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.1
Navy 8 - 10 0.3 1.1 2.8 4.9 7.2 9.0 10.2 11.2 11.1 10.5 9.6 7.6 5.7 4.2 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
Lafayette 7 - 11 0.7 2.4 5.1 7.2 9.4 11.1 11.7 11.0 10.1 9.1 7.5 5.6 3.8 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 7 - 11 0.8 2.9 5.8 8.4 10.1 11.6 11.7 11.0 10.5 8.7 6.7 4.7 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Bucknell 27.6% 19.3 6.6 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Lehigh 22.3% 15.7 5.0 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Holy Cross 14.6% 9.3 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Colgate 13.8% 8.8 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Army 12.7% 8.0 3.7 0.8 0.2 0.1
Boston University 10.7% 6.9 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
American 9.5% 5.9 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Navy 5.8% 3.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.1
Lafayette 3.6% 2.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Maryland 2.7% 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Bucknell 23.4% 23.2% 0.2% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.3 4.2 5.1 5.7 5.1 76.6 0.3%
Lehigh 18.6% 18.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.6 4.9 4.9 81.4 0.1%
Holy Cross 11.8% 11.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.3 3.6 4.1 88.2 0.1%
Colgate 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 3.2 3.5 89.2 0.1%
Army 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.0 4.2 89.6 0.0%
Boston University 8.4% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.2 3.5 91.6 0.0%
American 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.9 92.7 0.0%
Navy 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.3 95.1 0.0%
Lafayette 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.5 97.4 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 97.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Bucknell 23.4% 2.8% 22.0% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lehigh 18.6% 2.6% 17.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Holy Cross 11.8% 2.4% 10.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colgate 10.8% 2.0% 9.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Army 10.4% 2.7% 9.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston University 8.4% 2.2% 7.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
American 7.3% 1.6% 6.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Navy 4.9% 1.5% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lafayette 2.6% 1.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Maryland 2.2% 1.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.5 0.5 0.0
1st Round 90.8% 0.9 9.2 90.5 0.2
2nd Round 7.4% 0.1 92.6 7.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0